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Risk Assessment is the evaluation of risk through
quantitative or qualitative measures. The risk assessment attempts to answer
the three fundamental questions of risk assessment.
- What can happen?
Industrial accidents
(past or potential), historic contamination of the environment or planned
industrial activities (e.g., routine emissions or construction activities) that
may impact the environment are all examples of events than can happen. For each
assessment, the specific nature of these occurrences are examined, detailed and
quantified. This stage of the assessment can be taken further to account for
movement of stressors (e.g. contaminants) to other locations or uptake by
environmental receptors (e.g. plants, animals, people).
- How likely is this to
happen?
Assessment of likelihood may range from qualitative
assessments of degree of likelihood through to detailed quantitative
assessments of failure modes and probabilities.
- What are the consequences?
The
concerns identified as "what can go wrong" are further assessed to determine
their potential effects on environmental receptors. Potential consequences
included adverse effects on the health of ecological species and humans,
physical damage to structures, socio-economic impacts and other consequences.
The stages of the assessment are combined to identify
those occurrences and impacts with the combined highest consequence and highest
likelihood. These are the occurrences of greatest concern, warranting the
greatest efforts towards risk management. When high uncertainties combine with
likelihoods and consequences, further studies or analyses to reduce
uncertainties can be targeted very specifically for the greatest reduction in
uncertainty per dollar spent.
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