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Risk Assessment is the evaluation of
risk through quantitative or qualitative measures. The risk assessment attempts
to answer the three fundamental questions of risk assessment.
- What can happen?
Industrial
accidents (past or potential), historic contamination of the environment or
planned industrial activities (e.g., routine emissions or construction
activities) that may impact the environment are all examples of events than can
happen. For each assessment, the specific nature of these occurrences are
examined, detailed and quantified. This stage of the assessment can be taken
further to account for movement of stressors (e.g. contaminants) to other
locations or uptake by environmental receptors (e.g. plants, animals,
people).
- How likely is this to
happen?
Assessment of likelihood may range from qualitative
assessments of degree of likelihood through to detailed quantitative
assessments of failure modes and probabilities.
- What are the consequences?
The concerns identified as "what can go wrong" are further assessed
to determine their potential effects on environmental receptors. Potential
consequences included adverse effects on the health of ecological species and
humans, physical damage to structures, socio-economic impacts and other
consequences.
The stages of the assessment are combined to
identify those occurrences and impacts with the combined highest consequence
and highest likelihood. These are the occurrences of greatest concern,
warranting the greatest efforts towards risk management. When high
uncertainties combine with likelihoods and consequences, further studies or
analyses to reduce uncertainties can be targeted very specifically for the
greatest reduction in uncertainty per dollar spent.
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